Thu, Dec 18, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 17 | 010 | 126 |
| CAR | 216 | 011 | 210 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54CARChris TerryAssists: Eric Staal, Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.46 xG0–1
- P1 13:43CARJustin FaulkSHGWGAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 16:55TORDion PhaneufAssists: Peter Holland, Cody Franson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 11:05CARAndrej SekeraPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:36CARElias LindholmENAssists: Eric Staal, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:05TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P1 12:24CARZach Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P1 15:58CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 12:02TORJake Gardiner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:03CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:07TORCody Franson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Santorelli – van Riemsdyk – Kadri7:15
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Winnik – Holland2:56
xG 0.02–0.01 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Booth – Holland2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak6:29
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Rielly3:13
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner11:05
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Gerbe – Terry8:58
xG 1.21–0.20 (86%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- McClement – Malone – Shugg5:13
xG 0.74–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm8:50
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Terry – Skinner – Rask2:46
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk16:10
xG 1.62–0.72 (69%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Gleason – Jordan12:51
xG 1.18–0.33 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Bellemore13:19
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).