Thu, Dec 18, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 215 | 09 | 211 | 11 | 536 |
| CBJ | 05 | 215 | 26 | 00 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51WSHJoel WardAssists: Eric Fehr, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:22WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Michael Latta, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 8:48CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Nick Foligno, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:57CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Kevin Connauton, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.34 xG2–2
- P3 0:52CBJNick FolignoAssists: Jeremy Morin, Brian Gibbons · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–3
- P3 7:02WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Michael Latta, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 15:35CBJMichael ChaputAssists: Jared Boll, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 17:00WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Mike Green · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 0:42WSHEric FehrGWGAssists: Mike Green · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:58CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:58WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:35CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:05CBJNick Foligno: Interference2 min
- P2 7:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:26WSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:20CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:22CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:22WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:51CBJFedor Tyutin: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:51WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:20WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:20CBJMichael Chaput: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:20CBJMichael Chaput: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:16WSHBrooks Orpik: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:12
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov5:17
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Latta6:49
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Ward – Laich – Fehr9:02
xG 0.09–0.75 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson11:49
xG 0.98–0.43 (69%)attempts 16–5goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Alzner14:03
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Green – Schmidt8:59
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Morin – Gibbons6:20
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Boll – Tropp – Chaput2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Skille – Johansen – Jenner8:42
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:56
xG 0.07–0.38 (15%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Connauton12:37
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–3
- Johnson – Savard12:59
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Prout13:56
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).