Thu, Dec 18, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 213 | 07 | 328 |
| SJS | 08 | 29 | 213 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:43EDMBoyd GordonAssists: David Perron, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:51SJSJames SheppardAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Melker Karlsson · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:36SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:23EDMSteven PinizzottoAssists: Matt Hendricks, Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–2
- P2 9:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, David Perron · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–2
- P3 8:29SJSMatt TennysonPPAssists: Tommy Wingels, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 9:03SJSBarclay GoodrowGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Melker Karlsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:22EDMNail Yakupov: Interference2 min
- P2 2:53SJSChris Tierney: Holding2 min
- P2 14:26EDMOscar Klefbom: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:26EDMDavid Perron: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Pinizzotto – Arcobello7:25
xG 1.14–0.32 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Yakupov – Draisaitl7:53
xG 0.75–0.63 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Gordon – Perron – Eberle11:53
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Purcell – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:23
xG 0.03–0.67 (4%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Hunt9:32
xG 1.19–0.33 (78%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Fayne – Klefbom14:36
xG 1.09–0.82 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Schultz – Klefbom2:54
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl12:02
xG 1.04–0.18 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Karlsson10:11
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 8–15goals 2–1
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels14:56
xG 0.73–1.08 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Desjardins – Scott – Tierney6:42
xG 0.21–1.14 (15%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon16:06
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Braun16:51
xG 0.92–0.77 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Hannan – Tennyson12:05
xG 0.25–1.64 (13%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).