Fri, Dec 19, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 112 | 18 | 02 | 0 | 228 |
| NJD | 26 | 06 | 04 | 02 | 1 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Andy Greene, Scott Gomez · Snap, 0.55 xG0–1
- P1 15:17NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Martin Havlat, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 14:55TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.35 xG1–2
- P3 19:19TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ryan Callahan, Jason Garrison · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Scott Gomez stopped
- 2. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 3. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
- 6. TBL Jonathan Drouin stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:21TBLBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:19NJDTim Sestito: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:59NJDEric Gelinas: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:18TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:51TBLBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:51NJDMichael Ryder: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:20TBLAlex Killorn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:05NJDMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
- P3 12:18NJDMichael Ryder: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Sestito
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Stamkos – Drouin10:42
xG 1.15–0.16 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Killorn – Connolly – Paquette3:49
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Brown – Paquette3:30
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly2:38
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas12:01
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman12:31
xG 0.69–0.51 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr10:56
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Tootoo – Bernier – Sestito3:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Henrique10:20
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Ryder – Ruutu – Gionta8:05
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Elias – Havlat – Zajac7:26
xG 0.16–0.57 (21%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Helgeson7:52
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Harrold3:25
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Harrold – Gelinas8:34
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).