Fri, Dec 19, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks 2, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 110 | 112 | 234 |
| OTT | 27 | 212 | 212 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 8:21OTTMark StoneAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 16:18OTTKyle TurrisSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 16:59OTTMike HoffmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 19:16ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Emerson Etem, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 1:49ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Ilya Bryzgalov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 5:40OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 16:32OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:32ANABen Lovejoy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:48OTTColin Greening: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:00ANAMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- P2 14:21OTTMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
- P3 12:52OTTAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Beleskey – Etem12:00
xG 0.53–0.27 (67%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon4:44
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Cogliano – Rakell6:59
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell3:18
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler17:58
xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Fistric – Robak15:07
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Stoner – Vatanen14:24
xG 0.20–0.87 (19%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad12:20
xG 0.94–0.32 (75%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone11:19
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Legwand – Michalek – Greening9:09
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Condra – Chiasson – Pageau11:16
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Borowiecki12:01
xG 1.01–0.47 (68%)attempts 19–18goals 2–1
- Cowen – Ceci16:55
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Phillips – Karlsson14:25
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).