Sat, Dec 20, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 010 | 05 | 125 |
| MTL | 19 | 19 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50OTTErik CondraSHAssists: David Legwand · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–0
- P1 6:38MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Tom Gilbert, Jiri Sekac · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:30MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 16:50MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: PA Parenteau, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 17:34MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Alexei Emelin, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:48OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:48MTLTom Gilbert: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:34MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:28MTLAndrei Markov: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:45OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:56OTTMike Hoffman: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:48OTTDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Chiasson – Pageau4:58
xG 0.48–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau6:07
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad12:27
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone9:43
xG 0.34–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Borowiecki8:51
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki3:29
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen4:34
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:38
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Prust – Sekac11:35
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Andrighetto2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Eller – Weise2:22
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Emelin13:14
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban16:27
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu9:50
xG 0.18–0.71 (20%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).