Sat, Dec 20, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 4, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 27 | 28 | 421 |
| NJD | 08 | 09 | 04 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:08WSHMike GreenGWGAssists: Jack Hillen, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 16:38WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Jay Beagle, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 7:16WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 17:49WSHNicklas BackstromENAssists: Jay Beagle, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.64 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:07NJDEric Gelinas: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:32WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:10WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:37NJDJordin Tootoo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:10WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:10NJDSeth Helgeson: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:26WSHJay Beagle: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:48NJDMarek Zidlicky: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 13:34NJDJordin Tootoo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov7:40
xG 0.25–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Latta7:34
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr9:41
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson9:39
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner14:13
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Green – Hillen9:48
xG 0.02–0.20 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson15:22
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Havlat – Zajac3:33
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Sestito – Gionta4:16
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Havlat – Henrique – Sislo5:35
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Ruutu8:59
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Merrill12:50
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Harrold – Gelinas7:57
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Helgeson7:08
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).