Sat, Dec 20, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 04 | 112 | 121 |
| NYI | 012 | 017 | 319 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 9:16TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mark Barberio · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 16:51NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 17:03NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 18:49NYINikolay KuleminENAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:54NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
- P1 19:02TBLBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39TBLCedric Paquette: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:42TBLJason Garrison: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:24NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov12:52
xG 0.55–0.79 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Paquette9:56
xG 0.04–0.41 (9%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly7:18
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Callahan – Stamkos – Drouin10:52
xG 0.27–1.60 (14%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Barberio3:20
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas3:21
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Barberio5:23
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Bailey – Tavares11:54
xG 1.20–0.44 (73%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin10:29
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome8:48
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:33
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy14:55
xG 1.65–0.29 (85%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan16:20
xG 1.70–0.72 (70%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:14
xG 0.97–1.04 (48%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).