Sat, Dec 20, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 121 | 013 | 012 | 146 |
| PIT | 215 | 012 | 17 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48PITNick SpalingAssists: Steve Downie, Marcel Goc · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:56PITDerrick PouliotGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 7:31FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:01PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Simon Despres · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
Penalties (27)
- P1 7:15PITScott Harrington: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:24FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:24PITEvgeni Malkin: Embellishment2 min
- P1 12:15FLABrian Campbell: Interference2 min
- P1 16:09PITBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
- P1 18:42PITKris Letang: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:42FLAWillie Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:42FLADave Bolland: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:42PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:42FLADylan Olsen: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:42PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P1 19:22FLAErik Gudbranson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:33FLAJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:33PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:15PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:21FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:21PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:21PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:16FLAVincent Trocheck: Kneeing2 min
- P2 10:05FLADave Bolland: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:05PITEvgeni Malkin: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:43FLADave Bolland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:10PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min
- P3 14:37PITRob Scuderi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:52PITMarcel Goc: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:09FLATomas Fleischmann: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Fleischmann – Bolland5:38
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Trocheck – Huberdeau8:54
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov10:07
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall6:33
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov11:23
xG 0.75–0.05 (93%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad11:11
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Olsen – Gudbranson9:02
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist9:47
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Sutter3:29
xG 0.01–0.31 (3%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Rust4:48
xG 0.04–0.51 (8%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Pouliot9:53
xG 0.76–0.74 (51%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Dumoulin2:38
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Harrington11:15
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).