Sat, Dec 20, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 6, Minnesota Wild 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 314 | 014 | 213 | 13 | 644 |
| MIN | 26 | 18 | 212 | 01 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10MINJason ZuckerAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 4:37NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Shea Weber, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 6:37MINZach PariseAssists: Charlie Coyle, Thomas Vanek · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 13:58NSHMatt CullenAssists: Victor Bartley, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 18:14NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 7:18MINMarco ScandellaPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 1:48NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Victor Bartley, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 9:05NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Shea Weber, Matt Cullen · Slap, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 10:46MINZach ParisePPAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 19:12MINThomas VanekAssists: Marco Scandella, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–5
- OT 1:45NSHMattias EkholmGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:19MINRyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P2 0:42MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:55MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:36NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:36NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:42NSHVictor Bartley: Interference2 min
- P3 7:14MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:51NSHOlli Jokinen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Beck – Jarnkrok4:26
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:24
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Wilson10:58
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Jokinen – Nystrom – Bourque11:11
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:55
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm15:45
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 20–19goals 1–1
- Bartley – Jones9:51
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Parise – Coyle11:40
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Zucker11:06
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Carter – Fontaine4:29
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon15:00
xG 0.70–0.64 (53%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Prosser – Folin4:32
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin19:12
xG 0.17–0.45 (28%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).