Sat, Dec 20, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 115 | 16 | 00 | 228 |
| VAN | 213 | 010 | 09 | 11 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40VANYannick WeberENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG0–1
- P1 9:24VANRadim VrbataPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–2
- P2 12:29CGYDavid JonesAssists: Kris Russell, Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P3 7:05CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jiri Hudler, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 0:18VANChris TanevGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:24CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:24VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:40VANLuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:01CGYJosh Jooris: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49VANHenrik Sedin: Interference2 min
- P2 2:40CGYDavid Jones: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:05CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:48CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P3 15:16VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Byron – Monahan7:04
xG 0.48–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Glencross – Granlund8:56
xG 0.68–0.26 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Jooris6:52
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan3:00
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Russell7:42
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie17:16
xG 0.77–0.49 (61%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Wideman – Diaz3:55
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Hansen – Bonino4:42
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Horvat4:30
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Richardson – Matthias – Vey7:48
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Dorsett – Matthias3:13
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stanton14:23
xG 1.14–0.30 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev15:14
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Sbisa10:03
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).