Sat, Dec 20, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 29 | 03 | 00 | 220 |
| SJS | 02 | 117 | 19 | 12 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:47SJSAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Justin Braun, Tye McGinn · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 14:29STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Dmitrij Jaskin · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 17:21STLSteve OttAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:39SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Joe Thornton, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:22SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:31STLJoakim Lindstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:47STLJori Lehtera: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:57STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Sheppard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Backes – Oshie9:02
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko12:44
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin13:04
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves6:01
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole11:32
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk15:50
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk3:58
xG 0.03–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Scott – McGinn4:33
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Karlsson10:52
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels14:45
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl14:24
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon17:45
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 23–13goals 0–2
- Hannan – Tennyson11:43
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun19:29
xG 0.42–0.53 (45%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).