Sun, Dec 21, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 07 | 19 | 02 | 3 | 223 |
| DET | 010 | 010 | 114 | 01 | 2 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:52DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Riley Sheahan, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 15:45COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 5. COL Alex Tanguay stopped
- 6. DET Tomas Tatar scored
- 7. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 8. DET Riley Sheahan stopped
- 9. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 10. DET Johan Franzen stopped
- 11. COL Daniel Brière stopped
- 12. DET Niklas Kronwall stopped
- 13. COL John Mitchell stopped
- 14. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 15. COL Tyson Barrie stopped
- 16. DET Tomas Jurco stopped
- 17. COL Jarome Iginla scored
- 18. DET Brendan Smith stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:11DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:25COLJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:34COLMax Talbot: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:10COLNate Guenin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:35DETTomas Jurco: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg5:17
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brière – O'Reilly – Landeskog14:09
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Mitchell14:35
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Talbot – Duchene – MacKinnon12:51
xG 0.14–0.79 (15%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Redmond – Barrie2:08
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Redmond15:10
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie12:09
xG 0.14–0.64 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader12:34
xG 0.70–0.13 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco13:17
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Franzen – Helm – Nyquist10:18
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Glendening7:47
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:35
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith15:25
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser18:45
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).