Sun, Dec 21, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 215 | 16 | 00 | 328 |
| BOS | 110 | 113 | 113 | 11 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52BOSDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:06BUFAndrej MeszarosAssists: Chris Stewart, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:36BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 15:36BOSChris KellyAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 1:27BUFTim SchallerAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Brian Flynn · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 18:29BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 2:14BOSLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:15BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:08BOSMatt Bartkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:08BOSMatt Bartkowski: Interference5 min
- P1 14:08BOSMatt Bartkowski: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 14:08BUFMarcus Foligno: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:08BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:08BUFMarcus Foligno: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:07BOSDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Foligno – Flynn3:36
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Grigorenko11:59
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Larsson – Schaller2:23
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Girgensons15:50
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Meszaros12:17
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Zadorov14:39
xG 0.91–0.63 (59%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Gorges – Pysyk2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg7:11
xG 0.47–0.11 (80%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Cunningham5:44
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:54
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Paille – Fraser7:07
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton13:48
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Chara – Krug3:57
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski4:50
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).