Sun, Dec 21, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 09 | 015 | 031 |
| CHI | 212 | 015 | 27 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:30CHIDavid RundbladGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:59CHIKris VersteegAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 9:07CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–3
- P3 11:22CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:32CHIBrent Seabrook: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:51TORRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:26CHIKris Versteeg: Interference2 min
- P3 8:46TORDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Holland – Panik4:45
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Kadri5:11
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Booth – Smith – Panik4:29
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Santorelli – Holland2:59
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Holzer – Gardiner2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner16:33
xG 0.49–0.69 (42%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Franson14:32
xG 0.20–0.61 (25%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad10:13
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom9:48
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Bickell – Shaw11:55
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sharp – Versteeg – Kane14:50
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:04
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:41
xG 0.88–0.60 (60%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Rundblad16:00
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).