Sun, Dec 21, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 04 | 29 | 11 | 423 |
| WPG | 217 | 19 | 02 | 00 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:38WPGMatt HalischukUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 7:33WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Bryan Little · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 11:21WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Mark Scheifele, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 6:06PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Mark Streit, Chris VandeVelde · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 16:46PHIVincent LecavalierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 0:10PHIJakub VoracekGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:13WPGAdam Pardy: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:46PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:03PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P2 6:03WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:25WPGEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 15:26WPGGrant Clitsome: Holding2 min
- P3 11:37WPGMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare5:40
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl11:38
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier11:45
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Laughton10:08
xG 0.13–0.84 (13%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Streit – Grossmann13:44
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Schenn12:49
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Schultz – Coburn16:03
xG 0.29–0.87 (25%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:05
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele11:33
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Halischuk – Kane – Lowry12:40
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso4:42
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Clitsome14:22
xG 0.75–0.26 (75%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot16:20
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Pardy – Postma10:38
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).