Mon, Dec 22, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 015 | 011 | 26 | 00 | 232 |
| ANA | 07 | 110 | 113 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:20ANARickard RakellAssists: Emerson Etem, Matt Beleskey · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 2:00SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:56SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Brenden Dillon · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 15:44ANACam FowlerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Devante Smith-Pelly · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 0:58ANARyan KeslerGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:29ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:29SJSTye McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:42ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:18SJSAndrew Desjardins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:15SJSScott Hannan: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:35ANAClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:53SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl14:18
xG 0.75–0.10 (89%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Scott – McGinn3:26
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels13:44
xG 0.36–0.60 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Karlsson11:33
xG 0.51–0.94 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Braun17:44
xG 0.63–0.75 (45%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Burns – Dillon18:11
xG 0.53–0.66 (45%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Hannan – Tennyson10:57
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Maroon – Smith-Pelly14:04
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Bourque – Smith-Pelly2:13
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell10:19
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Jackman – Thompson – Bourque3:31
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Lindholm14:03
xG 0.63–0.19 (76%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Stoner – Vatanen13:49
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler18:48
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).