Mon, Dec 22, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 18 | 28 | 15 | 428 |
| LAK | 215 | 110 | 07 | 02 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Drew Doughty, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:50LAKMarian GaborikPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 4:32LAKJamie McBainPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 18:02CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Kris Russell · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:48CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 19:01CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 4:07CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:24LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:14CGYDavid Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:50CGYLance Bouma: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:10LAKJeff Carter: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan6:40
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Raymond – Byron – Colborne3:55
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan5:38
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund4:58
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell19:30
xG 0.84–0.69 (55%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz7:39
xG 0.07–0.44 (13%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie20:53
xG 0.45–1.01 (31%)attempts 15–26goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Carter – Kopitar14:21
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Toffoli – Pearson9:09
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Richards – King – Clifford10:26
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown12:48
xG 0.29–0.50 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – McNabb11:23
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez14:44
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty23:06
xG 1.00–0.79 (56%)attempts 26–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).