Tue, Dec 23, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 27 | 03 | 115 | 325 |
| BOS | 210 | 25 | 110 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:35NSHColin WilsonAssists: James Neal, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 9:43BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 11:31NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Taylor Beck · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 5:53BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 10:51BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Kevan Miller · Snap, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 6:48NSHTaylor BeckAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 19:22BOSLoui ErikssonENAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Chris Kelly · Snap, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:43NSHOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:27NSHSeth Jones: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:23BOSCarl Soderberg: Holding2 min
- P2 19:51BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P3 2:02NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:02NSHJames Neal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:26NSHJames Neal: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Wilson3:28
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:16
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson6:22
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Cullen – Beck – Jarnkrok6:10
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones14:25
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi19:54
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Ellis – Ekholm10:39
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 2–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith11:00
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Campbell – Paille – Fraser5:11
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Krejci – Lucic – Cunningham12:46
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:33
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski16:44
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton13:31
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Miller – Krug12:38
xG 0.09–0.49 (16%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).