Tue, Dec 23, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New Jersey Devils 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 015 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 233 |
| NJD | 15 | 03 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Steve Bernier, Tuomo Ruutu · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 11:59CARRon HainseyAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NJD Scott Gomez stopped
- 2. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 3. NJD Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 4. CAR Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 5. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
- 6. CAR Chris Terry scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:52NJDEric Gelinas: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:11CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:39CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:31NJDMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:22CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:22NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:46CARRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Gerbe – Nash6:42
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Terry7:41
xG 0.23–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Boychuk – Woods2:38
xG 0.14–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm12:00
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk12:28
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Sekera3:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gleason – Jordan4:58
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Zajac – Henrique12:45
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Bernier – Sestito2:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Bernier – Gionta7:33
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Cammalleri16:52
xG 0.06–0.74 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Helgeson10:33
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill8:52
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Greene2:45
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).