Tue, Dec 23, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 03 | 29 | 19 | 321 |
| NYI | 114 | 09 | 015 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Lubomir Visnovsky · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 6:10MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: P.K. Subban · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:27MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 18:49MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Lars Eller, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:51MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:58NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:03MTLJiri Sekac: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:14NYILubomir Visnovsky: Holding2 min
- P3 19:17NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:17MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:17NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk13:37
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Prust – Sekac2:54
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Eller12:40
xG 0.42–0.62 (41%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Prust – Weise8:20
xG 0.26–0.60 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Beaulieu12:03
xG 0.67–0.27 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu3:22
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Emelin3:46
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome8:24
xG 0.71–0.02 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin10:25
xG 0.58–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares12:06
xG 0.99–0.65 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:50
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey12:44
xG 1.30–0.28 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:08
xG 1.02–0.47 (68%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan18:44
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 23–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).