Tue, Dec 23, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 111 | 211 | 530 |
| MIN | 17 | 110 | 07 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16PHISean CouturierAssists: R.J. Umberger · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:33PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Luke Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 10:03MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 3:43MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 15:22PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 5:29PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:31PHIMichael RafflENAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:28PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:14PHINicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:23PHIBrayden Schenn: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P3 11:28PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:10MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIChris VandeVelde: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00MINRyan Carter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl12:15
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare8:50
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Laughton8:15
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier8:34
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann14:43
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Schenn16:10
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 3–0
- Schultz – Coburn12:52
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Coyle – Niederreiter6:44
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Cooke – Koivu – Zucker3:36
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund2:46
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Niederreiter2:50
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Brodin18:18
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 14–19goals 0–2
- Falk – Folin4:07
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon14:55
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).