Tue, Dec 23, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 0, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 07 | 012 | 026 |
| COL | 214 | 317 | 010 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:02COLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 18:45COLZach RedmondPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 5:49COLAlex TanguayAssists: Jarome Iginla, Brad Stuart · Tip-in, 0.34 xG0–3
- P2 16:47COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–4
- P2 17:27COLJarome IginlaAssists: John Mitchell, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.06 xG0–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:37STLJoakim Lindstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:29STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:43COLDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P1 17:29STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:13STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:18STLJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58STLMaxim Lapierre: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:49COLAlex Tanguay: Interference2 min
- P3 11:16COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Iginla won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Berglund – Jaskin10:45
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Steen – Backes – Oshie7:14
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves3:11
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Lehtera – Tarasenko5:05
xG 0.08–0.69 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Shattenkirk5:33
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk4:26
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Butler – Cole4:46
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Duchene – MacKinnon10:21
xG 1.07–0.40 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg6:28
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Mitchell12:53
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Brière – O'Reilly – Landeskog7:57
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson13:37
xG 0.94–0.38 (71%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie10:53
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Stuart – Redmond11:33
xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).