Sat, Dec 27, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 210 | 05 | 424 |
| STL | 211 | 010 | 112 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08DALTravis MoenAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 2:35STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Paul Stastny, Dmitrij Jaskin · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 14:46DALRyan GarbuttUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 16:10STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 7:41DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 19:12DALJason DemersPPGWGAssists: Erik Cole, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 5:40STLDavid BackesAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:13DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:03DALVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:05DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P2 6:06STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:17STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:50STLT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:28STLChris Porter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 5:50DALAntoine Roussel: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:58STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58DALCody Eakin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:58DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin11:11
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:58
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Fiddler7:57
xG 0.09–0.48 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky8:14
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:59
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Demers – Benn12:02
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
- Klingberg – Jokipakka2:07
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie10:51
xG 0.78–0.12 (86%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Porter – Lehtera – Tarasenko11:00
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves4:38
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin10:20
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:19
xG 1.53–0.74 (67%)attempts 25–18goals 2–0
- Jackman – Lindbohm11:13
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Butler – Shattenkirk14:10
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).