Sun, Dec 28, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 03 | 414 | 05 | 422 |
| FLA | 013 | 215 | 46 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:39TORRichard PanikAssists: Morgan Rielly, David Clarkson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:24FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Brian Campbell, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 10:13FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 14:16TORRoman PolakAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 17:30TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cody Franson, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 18:59TORNazem KadriAssists: Joffrey Lupul, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 2:45FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 10:09FLAWillie MitchellAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 16:45FLABrad BoyesPPGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–5
- P3 18:35FLAScottie UpshallENAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Derek MacKenzie · Backhand, 0.65 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:33FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P1 14:35TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:40TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P1 19:12FLAScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:38FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:12FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:19TORCody Franson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak11:25
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Winnik – Holland3:55
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Booth – Winnik – Ashton4:23
xG 0.02–0.06 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Santorelli – van Riemsdyk – Kadri10:07
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson15:47
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Polak – Gardiner13:17
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 2–2
- Robidas – Polak3:06
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Trocheck – Huberdeau9:57
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall7:16
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bolland10:05
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Bergenheim – Hayes – Barkov10:21
xG 0.42–1.04 (29%)attempts 11–17goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad14:38
xG 0.94–0.27 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson12:38
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Kulikov14:08
xG 0.24–0.87 (22%)attempts 13–15goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).