Mon, Dec 29, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 112 | 06 | 230 |
| BOS | 319 | 011 | 215 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44BOSReilly SmithAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Slap, 0.00 xG0–1
- P1 11:21DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:12BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Torey Krug, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P1 17:25BOSCarl SoderbergGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 15:10DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 5:11BOSSeth GriffithPPAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 17:34BOSChris KellyENAssists: Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:03BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:36BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:55BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:34DETBrian Lashoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:58BOSDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Jurco4:48
xG 0.59–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Franzen – Sheahan – Jurco2:11
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening2:30
xG 0.05–0.07 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weiss – Miller – Glendening8:11
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith5:06
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser5:08
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith6:48
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:35
xG 0.96–0.45 (68%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Cunningham – Griffith – Lindblad6:29
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Paille – Caron10:46
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Smith14:21
xG 0.60–0.85 (41%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug13:58
xG 0.81–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton14:25
xG 0.77–0.29 (73%)attempts 22–6goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski16:20
xG 0.40–0.91 (31%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).