Mon, Dec 29, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 07 | 012 | 128 |
| NJD | 07 | 28 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Derrick Pouliot · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:33NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 18:40NJDJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:32NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:50NJDEric Gelinas: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:25PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 3:25NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:55PITAndrew Ebbett: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:16NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16NJDTuomo Ruutu: Holding2 min
- P3 5:47NJDScott Gomez: Interference2 min
- P3 9:07PITSimon Despres: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:56PITAndrew Ebbett: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Crosby – Rust4:05
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Goc – Spaling – Farnham4:18
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Goc – Klinkhammer – Spaling3:04
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ebbett – Klinkhammer – Uher2:05
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Pouliot12:06
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Bortuzzo8:29
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:01
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gomez – Henrique11:29
xG 0.77–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Bernier – Gionta6:27
xG 0.17–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Sestito – Whitney2:03
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Bernier – Sestito3:30
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Merrill17:14
xG 1.02–0.43 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson4:21
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Larsson8:29
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).