Mon, Dec 29, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 010 | 310 | 00 | 326 |
| NYI | 111 | 111 | 112 | 15 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15NYIAnders LeeAssists: Thomas Hickey, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 10:06NYILubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mikhail Grabovski · Slap, 0.27 xG0–2
- P3 1:41NYICalvin de HaanSHAssists: John Tavares, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 4:40WSHEric FehrAssists: Brooks Laich, Jack Hillen · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 6:29WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 17:19WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:53NYIJohnny BoychukPPGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:57NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:14WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:58NYIBrock Nelson: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:48NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:15WSHTom Wilson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55WSHJack Hillen: Holding2 min
- P2 19:46NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:06WSHMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:40WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:56WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Latta2:13
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr6:12
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Beagle – Latta – Wilson2:40
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov6:15
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Hillen7:45
xG 1.09–0.39 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Alzner – Hillen2:14
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Green – Carlson2:15
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kulemin – Nelson8:56
xG 0.89–0.15 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome7:52
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:26
xG 0.60–0.85 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares11:10
xG 0.84–1.33 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan14:05
xG 1.33–0.46 (74%)attempts 19–8goals 0–2
- Boychuk – Leddy13:28
xG 1.32–1.04 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:22
xG 0.75–0.97 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).