Mon, Dec 29, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 25 | 14 | 319 |
| CAR | 08 | 08 | 113 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:45MTLJiri SekacUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 18:45MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Dale Weise, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 2:59CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:37MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Brandon Prust · Snap, 0.63 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:23CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:23MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:30MTLJiri Sekac: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:54MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:00CARNathan Gerbe: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:42
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Desharnais13:09
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac9:47
xG 0.03–0.18 (14%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Andrighetto5:09
xG 0.04–0.29 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban19:51
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Emelin13:13
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu16:49
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Nash – Skinner4:52
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Tlusty – Terry – Rask10:21
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm6:06
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Staal – Lindholm6:52
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Jordan14:37
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Jordan3:22
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore13:46
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).