Mon, Dec 29, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 211 | 02 | 221 |
| OTT | 116 | 110 | 310 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:24OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 1:53BUFMark PysykAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 8:37BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Matt Moulson, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 18:41OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 3:02OTTBobby RyanGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 11:54OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Chris Phillips, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:58OTTColin GreeningENAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:52OTTColin Greening: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:23OTTJared Cowen: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:23BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:19OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09OTTDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:45BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:42BUFChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:00OTTDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00OTTColin Greening: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFCody McCormick: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Flynn won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:36
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Grigorenko10:16
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Larsson6:17
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Flynn7:41
xG 0.09–1.06 (8%)attempts 3–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Zadorov10:17
xG 0.85–0.32 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Meszaros – Weber9:57
xG 0.07–0.44 (14%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Zadorov3:34
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Pageau3:29
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 2–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone10:39
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau6:56
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Greening – Condra – Zibanejad2:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch11:45
xG 1.58–0.30 (84%)attempts 24–6goals 3–0
- Phillips – Gryba6:47
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Phillips – Karlsson8:21
xG 0.67–0.15 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).