Mon, Dec 29, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 110 | 010 | 127 |
| CGY | 27 | 03 | 05 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:15CGYMarkus GranlundGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 19:09LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:13CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P1 15:08LAKKyle Clifford: Elbowing2 min
- P2 4:11CGYKris Russell: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:33LAKJarret Stoll: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Toffoli – Pearson8:42
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown12:50
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Kopitar – King11:22
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Richards – Clifford – Nolan7:29
xG 0.02–0.21 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty19:47
xG 0.96–0.34 (74%)attempts 28–11goals 0–1
- Greene – Martinez14:40
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Schultz – McBain10:54
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Bollig8:11
xG 0.22–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund9:56
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Raymond – Byron – Colborne8:17
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan12:24
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Diaz9:54
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell19:41
xG 0.21–0.44 (33%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie17:39
xG 0.43–0.81 (34%)attempts 10–23goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).