Tue, Dec 30, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 28 | 012 | 228 |
| NSH | 112 | 118 | 117 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:05NSHShea WeberAssists: Olli Jokinen, Gabriel Bourque · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:50STLChris ButlerAssists: David Backes · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 14:39STLT.J. OshieAssists: David Backes, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 16:06NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Olli Jokinen, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 9:02NSHShea WeberSHGWGAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:17NSHMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:33STLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P1 18:21STLSteve Ott: Charging2 min
- P2 5:33STLVladimir Tarasenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:27NSHCalle Jarnkrok: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:54NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:57STLBarret Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:20NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Ott – Lindstrom – Lapierre4:17
xG 0.02–0.12 (14%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Lehtera – Tarasenko9:09
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie10:54
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 15–18goals 2–2
- Stastny – Reaves – Jaskin8:09
xG 0.06–0.37 (15%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo2:03
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Butler – Shattenkirk11:51
xG 0.36–0.51 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:37
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Gaustad – Bourque6:44
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson8:28
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:20
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Nystrom – Beck – Jarnkrok10:20
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi14:51
xG 0.98–0.57 (63%)attempts 23–19goals 2–2
- Ellis – Ekholm12:07
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Jones13:33
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).