Tue, Dec 30, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 015 | 215 | 02 | 0 | 239 |
| EDM | 16 | 110 | 01 | 04 | 1 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Derek Roy, Oscar Klefbom · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 10:02LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 17:35LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 2. EDM Derek Roy stopped
- 3. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 4. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. LAK Tyler Toffoli stopped
- 6. EDM Matt Hendricks stopped
- 7. LAK Justin Williams stopped
- 8. EDM David Perron scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:04LAKDwight King: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:53EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:23EDMJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:18LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:49EDMNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:56LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:59EDMJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lewis won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Richards – Andreoff3:01
xG 0.45–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson5:42
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Lewis – Toffoli – Pearson4:51
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – King3:58
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty16:41
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Martinez14:02
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Doughty2:59
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Perron – Fraser – Draisaitl9:03
xG 0.23–0.26 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:38
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov7:59
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Pitlick9:01
xG 0.10–0.55 (16%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Klefbom2:37
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Klefbom2:18
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Schultz6:41
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).