Wed, Dec 31, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 211 | 02 | 00 | 2 | 421 |
| BOS | 07 | 38 | 09 | 04 | 1 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:22TORLeo KomarovAssists: Peter Holland · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:17BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.53 xG1–1
- P2 0:48TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 9:45TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 15:28BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Seth Griffith · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 17:31BOSTorey KrugAssists: Loui Eriksson, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Mike Santorelli scored
- 2. BOS Reilly Smith stopped
- 3. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 4. BOS Torey Krug scored
- 5. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 6. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 7. TOR Peter Holland stopped
- 8. BOS Seth Griffith stopped
- 9. TOR Nazem Kadri scored
- 10. BOS David Krejci stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:13BOSDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:13TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:13BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:51BOSZdeno Chara: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 19:19TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08BOSKevan Miller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:06TORJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Kadri5:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Booth – Smith8:13
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Winnik – Kadri6:16
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Holland8:42
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Gardiner15:38
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:51
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly15:59
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith12:19
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg12:33
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Griffith11:50
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Cunningham8:23
xG 0.02–0.36 (6%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton12:45
xG 0.81–0.34 (71%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Miller2:29
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller2:34
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).