Wed, Dec 31, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 05 | 012 | 129 |
| CBJ | 08 | 18 | 210 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:58MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 19:14CBJKevin ConnautonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 5:57CBJDavid SavardPPGWGAssists: Kevin Connauton, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 19:37CBJRyan JohansenENAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:40CBJKevin Connauton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:07CBJJames Wisniewski: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:55MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:56CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:14MINRyan Suter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:13CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Sutter – Carter6:09
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Fontaine – Graovac9:46
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise12:37
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Vanek – Coyle – Niederreiter9:12
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:43
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Scandella2:56
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Bickel – Prosser3:24
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Calvert6:54
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Skille – Tropp – Wennberg3:59
xG 0.01–0.02 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skille – Foligno – Wennberg3:42
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Boll – Chaput6:09
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:00
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski2:08
xG 0.04–0.01 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout14:29
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).