Wed, Dec 31, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 212 | 210 | 534 |
| FLA | 07 | 15 | 18 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:42NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Kevin Klein · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 1:29NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Carl Hagelin · Slap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 14:28NYRRyan McDonaghPPGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 16:38FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 7:39FLAJimmy HayesPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Dave Bolland · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:51NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 15:35NYRDominic MooreAssists: Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.29 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:53NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:53FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:08NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:22FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:35NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:12FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:12NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Stempniak – Miller9:26
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider10:41
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:17
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Fast9:15
xG 0.03–0.18 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh14:30
xG 0.95–0.22 (81%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal11:01
xG 0.80–0.22 (79%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Klein – Hunwick11:13
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Upshall – Bolland5:02
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Upshall – Trocheck2:53
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Fleischmann – Bjugstad3:55
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Trocheck – Barkov2:44
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Ekblad19:34
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Mitchell – Kulikov17:15
xG 0.33–0.91 (27%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson13:18
xG 0.17–1.00 (14%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).