Wed, Dec 31, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 3, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 114 | 08 | 25 | 327 |
| ANA | 03 | 010 | 015 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 1:59SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 17:55SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:02ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:02SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:43ANARyan Kesler: Interference2 min
- P1 15:46ANAEmerson Etem: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:53ANASami Vatanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:49SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00SJSTommy Wingels: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00ANARyan Getzlaf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:56SJSScott Hannan: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:15ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 11:55SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:59ANAMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min
- P3 15:28ANASami Vatanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl3:32
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels6:19
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Karlsson5:40
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Nieto – Hertl3:11
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun8:25
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon11:47
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Tennyson7:30
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon6:58
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Thompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg5:14
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Etem – Rakell3:12
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Smith-Pelly8:03
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm11:27
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler9:14
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen8:08
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).