Wed, Dec 31, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 08 | 28 | 03 | 329 |
| COL | 08 | 211 | 110 | 14 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 10:47COLNate GueninAssists: Marc-Andre Cliche, Max Talbot · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:17COLBorna RendulicAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Brad Stuart · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 2:52PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Braydon Coburn, Chris VandeVelde · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 10:00PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 12:48COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Nick Holden, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 4:40COLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:36PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:36COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:36PHIChris VandeVelde: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:56COLMax Talbot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:05COLJohn Mitchell: Delaying game2 min
- P1 12:24PHIR.J. Umberger: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:24PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:22COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:49COLBorna Rendulic: Interference2 min
- P3 8:04COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:37PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Read8:48
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Laughton9:17
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Giroux – Voracek2:17
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Umberger – Couturier – Raffl4:25
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann14:03
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Del Zotto8:49
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Streit – MacDonald2:13
xG 0.08–0.16 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – McLeod – Cliche3:26
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – O'Reilly2:02
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Duchene – MacKinnon2:31
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – Rendulic7:15
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie10:39
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stuart – Holden10:27
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Stuart – Guenin2:12
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).