Fri, Jan 2, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 110 | 114 | 335 |
| PIT | 311 | 18 | 210 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 6:50PITAndrew EbbettAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Simon Despres · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 13:39PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P1 15:11TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Ondrej Palat, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–3
- P2 12:48TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 17:07PITChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Beau Bennett, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 11:18TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anton Stralman, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 11:52PITSteve DownieAssists: Sidney Crosby, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 19:55PITSteve DownieENAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:36TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11PITSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:43PITChristian Ehrhoff: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:39PITChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
- P2 14:59TBLAndrej Sustr: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Connolly3:42
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Paquette7:54
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn4:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly5:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Barberio5:05
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Barberio – Sustr2:02
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr2:08
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Ebbett – Rust7:45
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 2–1
- Adams – Malkin – Ebbett2:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Downie – Spaling12:02
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Adams – Goc – Farnham6:55
xG 0.01–0.30 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Letang17:32
xG 1.29–0.65 (67%)attempts 24–14goals 2–2
- Scuderi – Despres12:37
xG 0.61–0.63 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Pouliot11:20
xG 0.01–0.29 (5%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).