Fri, Jan 2, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 014 | 012 | 19 | 135 |
| MIN | 010 | 110 | 29 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:14MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter · Deflected, 0.24 xG0–1
- P3 2:37TORCody FransonPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 7:23MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 9:18MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:53TORDavid Clarkson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:34MINMikko Koivu: Holding2 min
- P3 1:38MINJared Spurgeon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:16MINRyan Suter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:07TORDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:45TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:45MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:17MINRyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:12TORPhil Kessel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Smith – Panik6:10
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Smith2:25
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Winnik – Komarov7:54
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Booth – Ashton – McKegg2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Gardiner13:05
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly12:15
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Phaneuf – Franson14:09
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Brodziak – Fontaine8:54
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter8:41
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise14:15
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Cooke – Carter – Graovac6:01
xG 0.01–0.55 (2%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin15:25
xG 0.93–0.27 (77%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon4:32
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Brodin – Folin3:18
xG 0.09–0.15 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).