Fri, Jan 2, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 1, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 05 | 112 | 02 | 0 | 128 |
| COL | 010 | 112 | 03 | 03 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:55COLDaniel BrièreAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 4:47EDMBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 2. EDM Derek Roy stopped
- 3. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. COL Alex Tanguay scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:43EDMLuke Gazdic: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:46COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:46EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:08EDMAnton Lander: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:08COLJohn Mitchell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:45EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:30EDMMatt Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:14COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:04COLDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:02COLAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:54
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Gazdic3:12
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Purcell2:20
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Pouliot – Purcell9:52
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom10:36
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Fayne10:29
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Schultz4:47
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Duchene – Landeskog10:43
xG 0.36–0.01 (97%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Brière – Mitchell – MacKinnon3:32
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon7:53
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – O'Reilly11:49
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Holden13:52
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Stuart – Barrie3:42
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie10:29
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).