Fri, Jan 2, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 2, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 06 | 19 | 224 |
| CGY | 07 | 09 | 17 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.33 xG1–0
- P3 12:16NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 16:35CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jiri Hudler, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:48CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:48CGYMatt Stajan: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 10:49NYIFrans Nielsen: Holding2 min
- P3 4:10NYIRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:32NYIJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Bailey – Tavares14:38
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:52
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome10:50
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson9:52
xG 0.35–0.74 (32%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy15:17
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey16:59
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan14:56
xG 0.51–0.93 (35%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Bollig7:25
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Byron – Colborne – Monahan2:19
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Glencross – Bouma – Granlund2:14
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Byron – Bouma – Granlund7:29
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie17:57
xG 1.01–0.32 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Giordano2:29
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz10:25
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).