Sat, Jan 3, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 19 | 19 | 11 | 326 |
| BOS | 09 | 113 | 16 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:33OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 16:22BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: David Krejci, Seth Griffith · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 10:35BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Krejci, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 15:45OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Eric Gryba · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 0:44OTTBobby RyanGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:29BOSMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:11BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:30BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:36OTTBobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 11:38BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:55BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:13OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Chiasson – Pageau8:38
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad9:46
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Legwand – Greening – Condra8:51
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone10:26
xG 0.09–1.28 (6%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gryba6:08
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch6:24
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch8:08
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith6:24
xG 0.83–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Campbell – Paille – Cunningham7:46
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Griffith2:25
xG 0.01–0.02 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Lucic – Smith3:41
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:06
xG 0.82–0.23 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – McQuaid13:03
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug2:05
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).