Sat, Jan 3, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 111 | 14 | 220 |
| NJD | 310 | 27 | 01 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20NJDJaromir JagrAssists: Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 15:42NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 19:56NJDJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 9:35NJDScott GomezAssists: Adam Henrique, Adam Larsson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 12:32NJDJaromir JagrAssists: Scott Gomez, Seth Helgeson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
- P2 16:38PHIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 5:59PHIVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:36PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:36NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:58PHIMichael Raffl: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:58NJDTim Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16PHIR.J. Umberger: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:42PHIZac Rinaldo: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:42NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:42PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:31NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:27NJDMichael Ryder: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:47PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:29PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:29NJDTim Sestito: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Schenn – Raffl2:36
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier3:44
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Voracek – Schenn2:50
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Rinaldo – Raffl3:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Del Zotto6:54
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – MacDonald2:20
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – MacDonald2:47
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gomez – Henrique11:18
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 11–13goals 4–0
- Elias – Havlat – Zajac11:37
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Sestito4:09
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Cammalleri12:09
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHelgeson – Merrill9:49
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson18:47
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 13–19goals 2–1
- Zidlicky – Fraser12:00
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).