Sat, Jan 3, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 28 | 113 | 112 | 433 |
| PIT | 111 | 010 | 010 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Tom Gilbert, Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 6:35MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Dale Weise · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 9:59PITDavid PerronAssists: Sidney Crosby, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 1:49MTLTom GilbertAssists: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 14:08MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Lars Eller, Jiri Sekac · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:15PITSteve Downie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:41MTLTom Gilbert: Interference2 min
- P1 19:41PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:54PITRobert Bortuzzo: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:56MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P2 19:55PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Desharnais – Weise10:16
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Prust – Eller – Bournival4:37
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac5:39
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Andrighetto – Sekac2:24
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Beaulieu12:43
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban16:44
xG 0.81–0.89 (48%)attempts 17–24goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Emelin15:47
xG 0.30–0.66 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 3–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Crosby – Perron3:06
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Downie – Perron10:18
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Malkin – Spaling – Rust7:48
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Sutter – Bennett10:29
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Letang18:06
xG 0.96–0.37 (72%)attempts 31–14goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Despres12:53
xG 0.68–0.67 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Harrington11:55
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).