Sat, Jan 3, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 1, Dallas Stars 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 111 | 06 | 122 |
| DAL | 112 | 517 | 16 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34DALVernon FiddlerPPAssists: Erik Cole, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:03DALColton SceviourGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 7:44DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Brett Ritchie, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 8:56DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 11:15DALErik ColeSHAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P2 15:16MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P2 17:41DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 18:32DALBrett RitchieAssists: Travis Moen, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–7
Penalties (21)
- P1 4:33MINErik Haula: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:26DALAlex Goligoski: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:33MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:04DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:03MINJason Pominville: Holding2 min
- P2 5:03MINStu Bickel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:03DALErik Cole: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:11MINNate Prosser: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:11DALColton Sceviour: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:23DALVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:23MINStu Bickel: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:23DALJason Demers: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:23MINStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:23MINStu Bickel: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:23MINStu Bickel: Aggressor10 min
- P2 12:23MINStu Bickel: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:23MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:23DALJason Demers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:23MINRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:36DALJohn Klingberg: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise11:55
xG 0.04–0.38 (10%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter8:57
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Zucker9:02
xG 0.31–0.96 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser2:46
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Prosser – Folin5:21
xG 0.06–0.11 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon2:14
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Fiddler – Ritchie8:47
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin7:47
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:40
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky9:33
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn10:08
xG 0.76–0.11 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg9:56
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Daley – Oleksiak4:41
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).