Sat, Jan 3, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 011 | 112 | 130 |
| VAN | 09 | 17 | 38 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:48VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 10:49VANRadim VrbataPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P3 16:30DETTomas TatarAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Danny DeKeyser · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 18:09VANHenrik SedinENAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–3
- P3 19:28VANHenrik SedinENAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:56VANRyan Stanton: Interference2 min
- P2 0:44DETHenrik Zetterberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:39DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:27DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:49DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:49VANZack Kassian: Embellishment2 min
- P3 1:41VANRyan Stanton: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:35VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:01DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:19VANDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:19DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:47DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:47VANAlexander Edler: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Miller – Glendening4:13
xG 0.65–0.05 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Franzen – Helm – Jurco3:52
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco5:49
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:29
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser12:24
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Ouellet11:35
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:10
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Matthias – Kassian5:53
xG 0.11–0.01 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Richardson – Dorsett2:20
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata10:55
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Horvat4:48
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev16:58
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stanton12:10
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Sbisa9:17
xG 0.11–0.48 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).