Sat, Jan 3, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 7, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 216 | 28 | 39 | 733 |
| SJS | 28 | 06 | 06 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:49STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 17:42SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Matt Tennyson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 18:22SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 19:16STLAlexander SteenAssists: Paul Stastny, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 5:32STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 19:51STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 1:17STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 4:58STLDmitrij JaskinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–2
- P3 9:16STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.02 xG7–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 12:13STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:13SJSMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:13STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:13SJSMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:54STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:38SJSScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 11:26STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:34STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:12SJSScott Hannan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:14STLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 8:26SJSBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:16STLIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:01STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:01SJSJustin Braun: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:17STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:49SJSTommy Wingels: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:00STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00STLSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00SJSMicheal Haley: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:05
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie9:52
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin9:23
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Ott – Reaves – Berglund2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Cole6:00
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson9:43
xG 0.58–0.28 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Jackman – Butler3:58
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – Goodrow – Karlsson8:16
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels5:03
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto5:19
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Haley – McGinn5:17
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Braun2:01
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Burns – Dillon13:06
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun13:26
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).