Sun, Jan 4, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 212 | 14 | 427 |
| COL | 13 | 219 | 07 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30COLJarome IginlaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:35CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Cody Goloubef, Jack Johnson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:37CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Matt Calvert, Cody Goloubef · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 5:25COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 7:50CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 15:30COLCody McLeodAssists: Daniel Brière, Brad Stuart · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 18:59CBJDavid SavardGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:26COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P1 15:20CBJSean Collins: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:30CBJCody Goloubef: Interference2 min
- P2 12:16CBJJack Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:49COLJarome Iginla: Bench2 min
- P3 7:20CBJRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:54COLNate Guenin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Johansen11:42
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Morin10:30
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Boll – Tropp – Chaput5:11
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Skille – Collins – Wennberg10:14
xG 0.14–0.47 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Connauton11:57
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef12:05
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard16:01
xG 0.59–0.80 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 1–3
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBrière – McLeod – Cliche2:12
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – O'Reilly10:32
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon5:39
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche4:00
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Barrie2:28
xG 0.36–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie7:01
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson15:21
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).