Sun, Jan 4, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 313 | 03 | 05 | 1 | 330 |
| ANA | 114 | 15 | 114 | 00 | 2 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:15ANAMatt BeleskeyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:38NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:52ANACorey PerryAssists: Rene Bourque, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:50NSHSeth JonesPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:14NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
- P3 17:43ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Nate Thompson, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 4. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 5. NSH Craig Smith scored
- 6. ANA Ryan Kesler scored
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:44NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:41ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 15:32ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23ANATim Jackman: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:18ANAFrederik Andersen: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:52NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P3 7:33NSHOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Gaustad – Nystrom3:09
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Jarnkrok – Arcobello6:23
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:31
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Fisher – Stalberg – Wilson11:48
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ellis – Ekholm14:51
xG 0.63–0.62 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi17:57
xG 0.48–0.80 (37%)attempts 12–22goals 0–2
- Volchenkov – Jones9:11
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Bourque11:58
xG 0.86–0.45 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon8:02
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri10:54
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell6:52
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler12:18
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:20
xG 1.04–0.75 (58%)attempts 21–11goals 3–0
- Stoner – Vatanen13:30
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).